THE BAHÁ'Í FAITH

Estimates of the Baha'i membership

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Bahá'í membership numbers, outside the U.S.:

According to the 1992 Encyclopaedia Britannica Book of the Year, the Bahá'í Faith had established "significant communities" in more countries and territories than any other religion except for Christianity. They were organized in 205 areas worldwide vs. 254 for Christianity. According to The Baha'i World, this has since increased to 235 countries and territories, including over 2,100 racial, ethnic and tribal groups. Encyclopædia Britannica Online estimates that they had about 7.4 million members worldwide in mid-2002:

The Bahá'í Faith states that it currently has about 6 million members worldwide, including about 2.5 million adherents in India and 140,000 in the US.  The latter value is an increase from 75,448 adults and youth which it claimed in 1979. ₂

The Canadian census found 14,730 in Canada in 1991 and 18,020 in 2001. ₃

Estimates of U.S. membership data:

There does not appear to be any source of reliable U.S. membership data. This is very common in the field of religion. The U.S. census does not tabulate religious identification. Some estimates of Bahá'í membership is based on the entire U.S. population; others include only persons affiliated with the United States National Spiritual Assembly, which does not include Alaska, Hawaii, and U.S. possessions.

Is it possible to extract an accurate value from the available data?

The ARIS estimate of 84,000 adults is based on an extensive telephone survey of over 50,000 American adults. There are many sources of error in this type of survey. Some are:

On a positive note, unlike other estimates cited above, the methodology of this survey is known. Thus, it represents a possible starting point to estimate the actual numbers of Baha'i members.

According to a calculator on the American Research Group web site, the study's margin of error on its estimate of 84,000 Baha'i adult members is accurate to within 0.44%, 19 times out of 20. Thus, if the poll were repeated 20 times, with the same number of adults questioned, a given value would be within 0.44%, for 19 of the 20 repeats. However, this value is only valid if the percentage of Baha'i members was about 50% of the total adult population. _8,9 The actual percentage of Baha'i adults is about 0.04%. The margin of error is thus much larger. We are seeking professional help for an accurate calculation of its value.

Four out of five of the sources of error listed above would tend to underestimate the total number of Baha'i adult members. 95,000 might be a better estimate for 2001. If we assume a 2% annual growth rate, then 101,000 might be a good estimate for mid-2004.

However, this estimate includes everyone who identifies themselves as Baha'i. Some of these are dedicated members; others may have heard about Baha'i beliefs, considered them to be reasonable, never acted on that thought, and never joined any religious group. The number of devoted, committed members of the Baha'i faith is probably much lower than 101,000, perhaps on the order of 60,000. This is surprisingly close to the harmonic mean of the estimates by the U.S. Baha'i NSA and reformer Fredrick Glaysher.

Comparing membership data from different faith groups:

It is difficult to compare Baha'i membership numbers with those of other faith groups. The definition of membership among religious groups varies. According to Robert Stockman, coordinator of the Research Office of the U.S. Bahá'í  National Center: "The definition of membership is more or less the same since the 1930s; a person must sign a declaration card stating he/she believes in Baha'u'llah, the Bab, and `Abdu'l-Baha, and understands there are laws and institutions to obey (the card does not specify them)." ₄ Other faith groups use different criteria to define their members, and count:

Some groups are known to pad their numbers. Others, like the Christian Science and Church of Satan do not reveal their membership totals.

Thus, it is not possible to compare the membership numbers of different religious groups. For example the 682,000 Bahai's and 690,000 new-religionists, as stated by Encyclopædia Britannica cannot be considered equivalent in size. Membership calculations are not made on a level playing field. ₅

References used:

1. "Worldwide Adherents of All Religions by Six Continental Areas, Mid-2002," Encyclopædia Britannica Online, at: http://www.britannica.com/
2. "Baha'i Population Statistics," 1979-APR, at: http://www.h-net.org/
3. "Religion (95A), Age Groups (7A) and Sex (3) for Population, for Canada, Provinces, Territories, Census Metropolitan Areas 1 and Census Agglomerations, 1991 and 2001 Censuses - 20% Sample Data," Statistics Canada, at: http://www12.statcan.ca/
4. Robert Stockman, "Baha'i Growth" (1998) at: http://bahai-library.com/
5. "Religious Adherents in the United States of America, AD 1900-2000," Encyclopædia Britannica Online, at: http://www.britannica.com/
6. "American Religious Identification Survey," CUNY, at: http://www.gc.cuny.edu/
7. "Bahai Faith, continued..." Adherents.com, at: http://www.adherents.com/
8. Fredrick Glaysher "The Bahai Faith and religious freedom of conscience," at: http://www.fglaysher.com/
9. "The margin of error calculator," American Research Group, Inc., at: http://www.americanresearchgroup.com/
10. "So how come a survey of 1,600 people can tell me what 250 million are thinking," RobertNiles.com at: http://nilesonline.com/

Copyright © 1996, 1998, 2001, 2003 & 2004 by Ontario Consultants on Religious Tolerance
Latest update: 2004-AUG-18
Author: B.A. Robinson