Twitter icon


Facebook icon

About this site
About us
Our beliefs
Is this your first visit?
Contact us
External links

Recommended books

Visitors' essays
Our forum
New essays
Other features
Buy a CD of this site
Vital notes

World religions
BUDDHISM
CHRISTIANITY
-Christian definition
 -Shared beliefs
 -Handling change
 -Bible topics
 -Bible inerrancy
 -Bible harmony
 -Interpret the Bible
 -Persons
 -Beliefs & creeds
 -Da Vinci code
 -Revelation, 666
 -Denominations
HINDUISM
ISLAM
JUDAISM
WICCA / WITCHCRAFT
Other religions
Cults and NRMs
Comparing Religions

Non-theistic beliefs
Atheism
Agnosticism
Humanism
Other

About all religions
Main topics
Basic information
Gods & Goddesses
Handling change
Doubt & security
Quotes
Movies
Confusing terms
Glossary
End of the World?
True religion?
Seasonal events
Science vs. Religion
More information

Spiritual/ethics
Spirituality
Morality & ethics
Absolute truth

Peace/conflict
Attaining peace
Religious tolerance
Religious freedom
Religious hatred
Religious conflict
Religious violence

"Hot" topics
Very hot topics
Ten Commandments
Abortion access
Assisted suicide
Cloning
Death penalty
Environment

Same-sex marriage

Homosexuality
Human rights
Gays in the military
Nudism
Origins
Sex & gender
Sin
Spanking
Stem cells
Transexuality
Women-rights
Other topics

Laws and news
Religious laws
Religious news

 

 

Religious Tolerance logo

Same-sex marriage (SSM)

Part 3: 2014: Testing the belief that marriage
equality causes the birth rate to decrease.
The theory fails in IA & VT. General conclusions.

Sponsored link.

horizontal rule

This topic is continued from Part 2 in a previous essay.

horizontal rule

same-sex marriage logo Did the Total Fertility Rate (TFR) values in Iowa drop after SSMs were legalized? (Cont'd):


Conclusions:

The case presented by the lawyers is also shown to be false in Iowa.

  • From the year 2005 -- four years before the state legalized SSM -- until 2012 -- three years after legalization, Iowa's TFR varied over a range of 4.7 births/1,000 women who were within the ages of 15 to 44 years.

  • The highest value was 70.1; the lowest was 65.4 births per 1,000 women in that age range.

  • After 2009 -- the year when SSM was legalized -- the TFR actually increased when expressed as a percentage of the U.S. value.

  • During 2010 to 2012 -- 1 to 3 years after SSM was legalized:

    • The ratio of TFR values in Iowa compared to U.S. values increased by at least 1.6 percentage points.

    • The absolute values of TFR in Iowa held relatively steady in spite of the recession.

In graphical form:

TFR in Iowa from 2005 to 2012

horizontal line

Did the Total Fertility Rate (TFR) values in Vermont drop after SSMs were legalized?:

During 2009, Vermont was the fourth state in the U.S. to make marriage available to same-sex couples. Yearly data is available for the state up to 2012, which is three years after SSM was legalized.

TFR data, from the March of Dimes web site 1 is:

Year TFR in CT TFR in U.S. Ratio of TFR: VT to US (in %) Years after SSM legalized
2005
49.6
66.7
74.4%
-4
2006
52.2
68.5
76.2
-3
2007
53.2
69.5
76.5
-2
2008
52.4
68.6
76.3
-1
2009
50.8
66.7
76.1
0
2010
52.6
64.1
82.1
1
2011
51.8
63,2
82.0
2
2012
51.6
63.0
81.9
3


Conclusions:

The case presented by the lawyers is also shown to be false in Vermont.

  • From the year 2005 -- four years before the state legalized SSM -- until 2012 -- three years after legalization, Vermont's TFR varied over a range of 3.6 births/1,000 women within the ages of 15 to 44 years.

  • The highest value was 53.2; the lowest was 49.6 births per 1,000 women in that age range.

  • After 2009 -- the year when SSM was legalized -- the TFR actually increased, both in absolute values and as a percentage of the U.S. value.

  • During 2010 to 2012 -- 1 to 3 years after SSM was legalized:
    • TFR values in Vermont increased by 0.8 to 1.0 units compared to the value for 2009, when SSM was legalized.

    • The ratio of TFR values in Vermont compared to U.S. values increased by at least 5.8 units.

    • The absolute values of TFR in Vermont held relatively steady in spite of the recession.

In graphical form:

TFR for Vermont: 2005 to 2012

horizontal line

General conclusions:

  • We analyzed data for the first four states that extended marriage to same-sex couples between 2004 and 2009: Massachusetts, Connecticut, Iowa and Vermont. For each of these states, the theory on which the lawyers for the defendants in Love v. Beshear based their attack on same-sex marriage is invalid.

  • The Total Fertility Rate in a given state seems to go up and down with economic indicators. Good financial trends appear to encourage couples to increase the size of their families; bad trends discourage them. Attaining marriage equality appears to have no influence on the data.

  • When 2013 results become available, we will augment the data for the above three states, and add data analyses for Maine, the District of Columbia, and New Hampshire. These three states also legalized same-sex marriage during 2009 or 2010.

  • We continue to wonder why the lawyers hired by the state of Kentucky based their opposition to same-sex marriage on a theory that appears to be totally without any foundation in reality. It only takes a few hours of effort to collect easily available birth rate data, perform some elementary arithmetic calculations, and disprove the theory. Basing testimony in a case solely upon an unproven theory that is so easy to disprove appears to be a very risky decision.

  • We can safely conclude that the above four states' birth rate was unaffected by the attainment of marriage equality. The other 16 states and the District of Columbia that have attained marriage equality by mid-2014 probably reacted in the same way to the legalization of SSM.

  • With:
    • The failure of the theory linking marriage equality to a major drop in birth rates, and

    • The rejection by federal and state courts and national professional associations of the earlier theory that same-sex parents are unable to properly raise children,

Then opponents of marriage equality will have to quickly find a new and convincing theory in order to continue arguing against marriage equality. They need to fight the approximately 70 marriage equality lawsuits pending in state and federal trial courts around the country. We are unable to predict the basis on which a new theory could be based. If religious, social, and political conservatives are unable to promote a new argument against marriage equality, then the human rights arguments based on the due process and equal protection clauses of the 14th Amendment of the U.S. Constitution in favor of marriage equality will continue to win throughout the court system.

horizontal line

References used:

The following information source was used to prepare and update the above essay. The hyperlink is not necessarily still active today.

  1. "Birth rate: Massachusetts and US, 2002-2012," A form, March of Dimes, at: http://www.marchofdimes.com/

horizontal line

How you may have arrived here:

Home > "Hot" topics > Homosexuality > Same-sex marriage > SSM sub-menu > Anti-SSM argument based on birth rate > here

horizontal line

Copyright © 2014 by Ontario Consultants on Religious Tolerance.
First posted: 2014-JUL-12
Latest update: 2014-JUL-14
Author: B.A. Robinson
line.gif (538 bytes)
Sponsored link

line.gif (538 bytes)

Go to the previous page, or to the "Anti-SSM argument based on birth rate" menu, or choose:

horizontal rule

Custom Search

Go to home page  We would really appreciate your help

E-mail us about errors, etc.  Purchase a CD of this web site

FreeFind search, lists of new essays...  Having problems printing our essays?

Twitter link

Facebook icon

Google Page Translator:

This page translator works on Firefox,
Opera, Chrome, and Safari browsers only

After translating, click on the "show
original" button at the top of this
page to restore page to English.

 
Sponsored links