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Bruce Robinson, Founder.
Climate change & other environmental concerns:
Introduction, Part 1 of two parts:
Cartoon. Webmaster's note.
A bit of humor: a climate change denier makes a point at a climate summit:
Personal thoughts of the webmaster:
I recall reading a science fiction book perhaps 5 decades ago in which some scientist had developed a form of super steel that was so strong that it could not be drilled or machined in any way. Then it was found that if this piece of steel touched a ordinary piece of steel, the new piece would mutate and become super steel as well. The whole process got out of hand until every piece of steel on Earth could no longer be machined or drilled or welded. This caused massive hardship.
It was an interesting story. It got me to thinking whether an even more serious disaster might actually happen in the real world. For example, an artificial form of life might be created in a lab that is fatal to humans. If it escaped, and propagated, it could create a world-wide epidemic. It might aggressively propagate itself from human to human until there were no humans left alive on earth for it to infect and kill.
A similar phenomenon may actually be underway today. The highly industrialized nations in particular have been burning accelerating amounts of fossil fuels. This has caused the Carbon Dioxide (CO2) content in the atmosphere to increase. This, in turn, is causing climate change. The climate is becoming unpredictable in many areas of the world; tornados and hurricanes are more powerful. The world is also heating up steadily. These phenomena were once referred to as "global warming." It is now called "climate change."
The CO2 content of the atmosphere has increased by 70 parts per million (ppm) between 1959 and 2009. This value is expected to increase by another 115 to 615 ppm by the year 2100. The actual amount in the future will be determined by what action -- if any -- humans take to reduce the burning of fossil fuels, like gasoline in trucks and cars, coal in some electrical generating stations, natural gas for heating, etc.
Variations in Carbon Dioxide (CO2) levels in the Earth's atmosphere:
The following NASA graph shows the rise in atmospheric CO2 during the past 400,000 years:
The vertical scale is in parts per million (PPM). It is difficult to read; the values vary from 160 at the bottom to 500 at the top. For hundreds of thousands of years, the CO2 content has never exceeded 300 PPM. It reached 300 PPM in 1950 and continues to increase.
Recent values of atmospheric CO2 have been continually measured by NOAA on the "Big Island" of Hawaii. Between 2012 and early 2016 their averaged data shows a steady increase of 2.8 parts per million each year. It reached 409 ppm during early 2018, and shows no signs of slowing down its rate of increase:
The red line shows monthly values, which fluctuate during the year.
The black line shows a smoothed average.
This increase in the level of CO2 is causing an increase in the well-known "greenhouse effect." Just as a greenhouse structure allows the sun's rays to enter the building, and then traps heat inside, CO2 in the atmosphere traps the sun's heat across the surface of the earth, causing climate change and global warming. This is causing, and will continue to trigger, radically unusual and unpredictable climate fluctuations and weather disturbances.
Even if governments are able to overcome the influence of the well financed and dedicated climate change deniers, it may be impossible to stop and reverse the rise in carbon dioxide in time to prevent massive devastation caused by:
Continued melting of the glaciers,
A major rise in ocean levels,
Submerging costal cities under water,
Altered ocean chemistry and bleaching of coral which impact life forms that use coral reefs as habitat.
Raising air temperatures so high that some areas of the world will become unlivable without air conditioning.
Another mass extinction of living species on the Earth, etc.
The CO2 level reached 412.63 on 2017-APR-26, which was the the maximum for the year. 4 It will probably exceed this value by mid-2018, and continue to increase.
1981 until now: Scientists' early warnings to humanity:
Over three decades ago, James Hansen startled a U.S. Senate committee meeting in 1981 by
saying that he was 99% certain that human activities were already warming the
climate. Ironically, the speech was given during a stifling heat wave in Washington, DC. He
co-authored an article in Science during August of that year that begins:
"Atmospheric CO2 increased from 280 to 300 parts
per million in 1880 to 335 to 340 ppm in 1980, mainly due to burning of fossil
fuels. Deforestation and changes in biosphere growth may also have contributed,
but their net effect is probably limited in magnitude. The CO2 abundance is expected to reach 600 ppm in the [21st] ... century, even if growth of fossil fuel use is slow." 5
As noted in NOAA's graph above, the concentration has already exceeded 400 parts per million, and continues to rise.
On 1992-NOV-18, over 1,500 members of regional, national, and international
science academies from 69 nations signed the World Scientists' Warning to
Humanity. Its introduction states:
"Human beings and the natural world are on a collision course. Human
activities inflict harsh and often irreversible damage on the environment
and on critical resources. If not checked, many of our current practices put
at serious risk the future that we wish for human society and the plant and
animal kingdoms, and may so alter the living world that it will be unable to
sustain life in the manner that we know. Fundamental changes are urgent if
we are to avoid the collision our present course will bring about." 6
Over two decades have passed since this second warning was issued. The
earth's environment has further degenerated. There have been a long series of updates from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) and from national and international science academies and scientific societies which consistently warn of continuing problems increasing in magnitude into the foreseeable future if we continue burning fossil fuels at an accelerating rate.
However, climate change deniers are actively trying to convince the population that climate change and global warming are a hoax:
Some promote the idea that climate change is not actually happening. This belief system is becoming increasingly difficult to hold as increasing amounts of data are being collected and distributed, showing that the CO2 level increasing, the Earth's surface temperature is increasing from year to year, glaciers are melting, sea levels are rising around the world, and species of animals are migrating.
Others say that it is happening, but that it is not caused by human activity and thus cannot be controlled or overcome. Some of these believe that the Sun's energy output is increasing. This is continually being monitored and the data shows that the Sun's energy output does vary on an 11 year cycle along with the number of sunspots and solar flares. However, there is no long-term increase or decrease. Solar activity during the 2010s has been no higher than it was during the 1950's. 7
Still others claim that the effects of humans on the earth are so puny that they cannot possibly be altering the climate.