Data indicating increasing support for SSM:Quinnipiac polls indicate an increase in support for SSM by New Jersey voters: 1
The 2009-NOV poll surveyed 1,615 voters; the margin of error is ~+mn~2.4 percentage points. 2 Meta study of polls: 1994 to 2009:Jeffrey Lax and Justin Phillips of Columbia University published a paper in the American Political Science Review, a peer reviewed journal. They scanned every poll taken in each of the 50 states over the interval 1994 to 2009. Each state showed a major increase in support for SSM and civil unions. New Jersey was no exception:
The rate of increase of support for SSM is about 1.6 percentage points per year. This agrees closely with the results for other states in the U.S. Extrapolating the last two results forward would predict about 54% support for SSM by mid 2011. This may be sufficient support to defeat a public initiative or plebiscite outlawing SSM. Lax and Phillips added Andrew Gelman to their team and estimated the support for SSM in 2010-AUG at 55% in New Jersey. 3 Support for civil unions is about 61%. 2011-JUN-24: The Jersey Journal conducts Internet poll:The Jersey Journal posted a question on their website: "Should same-sex marriage be legalized?" Results were 70% in favor, 30% opposed. (N = 514; margin of error is ~+mn~ ). However, this result is not particularly accurate because some visitors to their web site who voted live outside of New Jersey. Also the distribution of age, educational attainment, marital status, urban/suburban/rural residency, race, religious affiliation etc, of those who took part in the poll are not necessarily comparable to the distribution among New Jersey adults. Another defect of Internet polls is that only those who strongly care about the topic are liable to vote; those that have no driving concern for or against SSM would probably not vote. 2011-AUG-02: Public Policy Polling releases poll results:Their poll was conducted during mid-July. They found 47% of voters wanted to legalize SSM while 42% are opposed, for a 5 percentage point margin in favor of SSM. Also, 11% refused to answer or didn't know. However, when given three options for loving, committed same-sex couples, results were:
They surveyed 480 voters. The margin of error is ~+mn~4.5 percentage points. 2
Polls from 2011-OCT to 2012-JAN are shown in a subsequent essay. |
Site navigation: Home > Homosexuality > Same-sex marriage > SSM Menu > New Jersey > here |
Copyright © 2009 to 2012 by Ontario Consultants on Religious Tolerance
Parts originally written: 2009-APR-23
Latest update: 2012-JAN-24
Author: B.A. Robinson

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