Longitudinal U.S. public opinion polls

Same-sex marriage (SSM)

Sponsored link.

Status of same-sex marriages (SSM) and civil unions:

As of 2008-JUN, same-sex marriages are only available in the Netherlands, Belgium, Massachusetts, Spain, Canada, South Africa California, and Norway. Some jurisdictions limit SSM to residents only. Their legislators or courts have simply re-written their marriage laws so that loving, committed couples of all sexual orientations can marry.

However, the states of Vermont, Connecticut, New Zealand, the UK, and other states and countries allow gays and lesbians to enter into civil unions or domestic partnerships. In the U.S., these couples receive all of the rights, privileges, and obligations that the state gives to married couples, but are denied over 1,000 federal benefits.

A bit of perspective:

It may be worth noting that a rapid change in the U.S. occurred over a little more than four decades:

• In 1948, about 90% of American Adults opposed interracial marriage when the Supreme Court of California legalized it, and California became the first state that allowed loving, committed interracial couples to marry. ₁₆
• In 1967, about 72% were opposed to interracial marriage. This was the year when the U.S. Supreme Court was legalized interracial marriage everywhere in the U.S. ₁₇
• In 1991, those adults opposed to interracial marriage became a minority for the first time. ₁₇
• The change averaged slightly less than 1 percentage point per year.

Gallup Organization on same-sex marriage:

When pollsters substitute the word "marriage" for "civil unions" then results shift towards increased opposition. When the Gallup Organization asked the question: "Do you think marriages between homosexuals should or should not be recognized by the law as valid, with the same rights as traditional marriages?" the following data were obtained:  ₁

Pew Forum: Detailed data on same-sex marriage from 1996 to 2003:

The Pew Forum on Religion & Public Life also polls the American public on this matter. Survey results over the period 1996 to 2003 show a major shift away from continuing the prohibition of same-sex marriage:

Comparing favor vs. opposition:

Major opposition comes from Evangelical Christians (83% either oppose or strongly oppose in 2003) and African-Americans (64%). Nearly every segment of society has shifted towards favoring allowing gays and lesbians to marry. However, neither Evangelical Christians nor African-Americans have significantly changed their beliefs between 1996 and 2003. The percentage of adults who oppose or strongly oppose same-sex marriage has reduced by:

• 20% among mainline Christians
• 19% among Roman Catholics
• 16% among Secularists
• 14% among Whites
• 12% among all adults
• 10% among Hispanics
• 1% among Evangelical Christians
• 1% among African-Americans

As of 2003, a majority of those Mainline Christians, Roman Catholics and Secularists who have an opinion on the topic favor same-sex marriage. They reported that: "Perhaps not surprisingly, people who have a gay friend, family member, or co-worker are more than twice as likely to favor gay marriage (55%) as those who do not (24%)." ₂

The 2008 poll showed that "... overwhelming majorities of Republicans (75%) and white evangelical Protestants (81%) oppose allowing gays to marry, and about half in each group strongly opposes gay marriage (48% of Republicans, 54% of white evangelicals). Opinions about gay marriage in both groups are virtually unchanged from July 2004. ₁₈

Pew Forum: Summary of data on same-sex marriage from 1996 to 2008:

The poll in 2004-FEB showed a sudden reversal in the trend towards increasing support for SSM. This poll was taken during a short period when hundreds of couples married in San Francisco. The couples were later forcibly divorced against their will by the courts.

The 2006 poll involved 1,405 randomly selected adults from across the U.S. The margin of error is approximately ±3 percentage points.

The most recent three surveys show a fairly constant trend towards greater acceptance of same-sex marriage. By extrapolating the data forwards in time, one might predict that equal numbers of American adults will support and oppose SSM by 2007-FEB. After that, one might predict that more adults will support than oppose SSM. ₃ However, even if this were to come to pass, it would probably have no impact in the political realm:

• Plebiscites allowing SSM would probably not pass unless the public was on the order of 60% to 40% in favor. That is because those individuals who oppose SSM are often strongly motivated and will be more likely to vote, whereas many persons who favor SSM are not as passionate about the topic and will be less likely to vote. Focus on the Family quoted Matt Daniels, director of the Alliance for Marriage, who said that: "We've seen routinely with these polls that what people will say is at least 10 percentage points different from what they do when they go to the voting booth." ₄ Actually, it is probably not a matter of people changing their mind on the way to the poll, as Daniels seems to imply. The difference is probably between polling, which accurately estimates public opinion, and voting, which boosts numbers for those who feel most passionately about the topic.
• Changes in federal and state laws may well not pass unless the public became on the order of 70% to 30% in favor. Again the reason is the passion with which people hold opinions. Any politician who voted for marriage equality would find that her or his constituents who are opposed to SSM would very likely retaliate against the politician in the next election whereas those who favor SSM would not be as likely to vote for the candidate. 

Other national polls on SSM:

Zogby International and Hamilton College polls of high school seniors:

Professor Dennis Gilbert and students from his public opinion polling class have conducted polls with the help of Zogby International. They sampled the opinion of one thousand randomly selected U.S. high school seniors on matters related to homosexuality, in 2001 and 2005. The margin of error is � 3%.

In their 2001-Spring "Gay Issues Poll" of "the class of 2001" high school students, they found:

• 66% feel that same-sex marriages (SSM) should be legal. This compared to about 33% of adults, according to polls at that time conducted by the Associated Press, Gallup and the LA Times.

Several factors influenced their support (or lack of support) for same-sex marriage:

• 84% of students, who would expect their parents to be accepting of a gay friend, favored SSM.
• 80% of Roman Catholics support SSM in spite of strong opposition by their church.
• 80% of Jews support SSM. (The accuracy of this value may be low because of the low sample size)
• 78% of students who has a close gay friend support SSM
• 59% of those who know a gay person favor SSM
• 55% of those who don't know a gay person favor SSM

On other matters related to homosexuality:

• 78% disagree with the statement "Lesbians are disgusting."
• 77% believe that "gays contribute to society in unique and positive ways."
• 71% believe that adult homosexual behavior should be legal.
• 71% would allow gay men to serve as Scout leaders.
• 69% disagree with the statement "Gay men are disgusting."
• 68% would allow gay couples to adopt children.

In their 2005 "Hot Button Issues Poll" on abortion, homosexuality and gun control, they found that:

• 53.6% support same-sex marriage.
• 20.1% support civil unions for same-sex couples.
• 24.6% oppose same-sex marriage and civil unions.
• 1.7% are unsure or gave no response.

On related matters:

• 25.8% support an amendment to the U.S. constitution to ban same-sex marriage
• 63% support adoption by same-sex couples.

These data are important because they represent the opinions of high school students who are about to graduate and will soon be voting. In a generation or two, they will be political leaders.

The pollsters commented:

"Approximately 20 percent of high school seniors are staunchly anti-gay � that is, they reject both gay marriage and civil unions and hold negative attitudes toward gays, as measured by our index. Over 80 percent of antigay seniors believe that 'homosexual relations between consenting adults' should be illegal and regard gay people as 'disgusting.' Both attitudes are rare among seniors, outside this anti-gay minority. Many of our respondents thought the very notion of labeling gays 'disgusting' was laughable. Antigay seniors are typically observant and born-again Christians, who view homosexuality as a moral or religious issue."

Peter D. Hart Research Associates' 2004-MAY and 2006-APR polls:

They conducted a poll in 2006-APR among 802 registered voters. The margin of error is � 3.5 percentage points. They conducted a similar poll about two years earlier. This is one of the rare polls that gave subjects three option about recognizing same-sex relationships. Support for SSM appears to be dropping even as support for civil unions is increasing. Results for a poll in 2004-MAY and 2006-APR were:

The Human Rights Campaign, a gay-positive human rights group, writes:

• "Catholic voters are especially wary of the amendment. Majorities of Catholic voters say states should make their own marriage laws (53 percent, while only 37 percent support the amendment). When asked about the statement 'Marriage is about love and commitment. Regardless of how I personally feel about gay people getting married, I don't think it's my place to judge these people's love for and commitment to each other,' an overwhelming 80 percent agreed."
• "General political environment for gay issues is changing. In a similar survey done by Hart in May 2004, only 40 percent of voters said it was very important that we ensure gays and lesbians receive the same rights under law as other Americans. In this poll, 51 percent said it was very important." That is an unusually large change in 23 months. ₁₃

Gallup Organization polls of 2006-MAY and earlier:

They conducted a poll among 1,002 American adults from 2006-MAY-08-11. The margin of error is about 3 percentage points. Results were:

• On extending marriage to include "gay marriage:"
  • 58% are opposed.
  • 39% are in favor
  • 3% are undecided or did not respond.
  • In 2006, the opposition to "gay marriage" is at approximately equal to the opposition to interracial marriage in the mid 1980s.
• The trends appears to be towards decreased opposition for same-sex marriage. The Gallup Organization has asked in this and previous polls: "Do you think marriages between homosexuals should or should not be recognized by the law as valid, with the same rights as traditional marriages?" They reported opposition at:
  • 68% in 1996-MAR;
  • 62% in 1999-FEB;
  • 59% in 2005-AUG;
  • 58% in 2006-MAY.
  • As with earlier data on interracial marriage, the rate of decline in opposition to same-sex marriage is approximately one percentage point a year.
• In their 2006-MAY poll, Gallup asked a more precise question in addition to the above. They substituted the term "same-sex couples" for "homosexuals". Opposition dropped from 58% to 56%. _14,15

About trends:

It appears that most American adults now favor civil unions for same-sex committed loving couples, or will do so in the very near future. Meanwhile, older youths and young adults favor enlarging the definition of marriage to include both same-sex and opposite couples. We suspect that these trends are based on the belief by a growing number of American adults that a homosexual orientation is equivalent to a heterosexual orientation for a minority of humans. They view both orientations as beyond the control of the individual, as unchosen, unchangeable, and perhaps morally neutral.

Opposition to homosexual behavior generally and same-sex marriages and civil unions in particular is still very high among Protestant Fundamentalist and other Evangelicals. One might expect that Roman Catholics would reject SSM and civil unions because of their church's unalterable opposition to both. However, at least among Catholic graduating high school students, support of SSM by individual Catholics is much higher than the general population.

Conservative Protestants remain the main organized resistance to change. If present trends continue, then most Americans will no longer view homosexuality as a problem. They will view homophobia ₁₂ -- opposition to equal rights for gays, lesbians, bisexuals and SSM -- as the real problem. They will consider as unethical those opposed to the recognition of same sex partnerships. Conservative Christians would then be faced with a difficult choice in future decades:

• Whether to continue political action to deny the right of gays and lesbian to marry or enter civil unions, and thus to impede their main task which is to evangelize the world, or
• To quietly back off on their activity against same-sex partnerships and allow gays and lesbians to achieve equal rights to opposite-sex couples.

References used:

The following information sources were used to prepare and update the above essay. The hyperlinks are not necessarily still active today.

1. Keating Holland, "Poll: Bush continues to lead Gore in presidential match-up: Education tops list of voter concerns," CNN.com, 2000-JAN-18, at: http://www.cnn.com/2000/
2. "Religion and politics: Contention and consensus," The Pew Research Center for the People and the Press, 2003-JUL-24, at: http://pewforum.org/publications/ *
3. "Less Opposition to Gay Marriage, Adoption and Military Service," The Pew Research Center for the People and the Press, 2006-MAR-22, at: http://people-press.org/
4. "New Marriage Poll Doesn't Tell Whole Story," Focus on the Family, 2006-MAR-24, at: http://www.family.org/
5. Higher Education Research Institute at the University of California at Los Angeles. Study similar to Ref. 7.
6. Princeton Survey Research Associates poll for Newsweek magazine. N = 602. Margin of error is 4%.
7. ICR of Media PA conducted the poll which was commissioned by the Associated Press. N = 1,012. Margin of error 3%.
8. Kaiser Family Foundation, referred to in Ref. 11.
9. Higher Education Research Institute at the University of California at Los Angeles. Study was based on 269,413 freshman students at colleges and universities. Margin of error is less than 1%
10. "Hamilton College Gay Issues Poll," Hamilton College, NY. See:  http://www.hamilton.edu/news/gayissuespoll/ N = 1000. Margin of error 3%.
11. Pew Center poll, referred to in Ref. 11.
12. The term "homophobia" has a variety of definitions. This is the one that we use.
13. "HRC poll shows marriage amendment not priority for voters," 2006-MAY-09, at: http://www.gayalliance.org/
14. "GOP renews fight against gay marriage. Bush calls for amendment, but critics see election-year diversion," CNN, 2006-JUN-05, at: http://www.cnn.com/
15. Michael Foust, "Gallup poll: 58 percent oppose 'gay marriage,' half support amend.," Baptist Press, 2006-MAY-22, at: http://www.bpnews.net/
16. Gail Mathabane, "Gays face same battle interracial couples fought," USA Today, 2004-JAN-25.
17. John Rogers, "Kung Fu Monkey" blog, 2005-MAR-16, at: http://kfmonkey.blogspot.com/
18. "Gay Marriage Is Back On The Radar For Republicans, Evangelicals But Overall Opposition to Gay Marriage is Less Than in 2004," Pew Research Center, 2008-JUN-12, at: http://pewresearch.org/pubs/

* You may need software to read these PDF files. It can be obtained free from:

Copyright © 2001 TO 2008  by Ontario Consultants on Religious Tolerance
Originally written: 2001-JUL-30
Latest update: 2008-JUN-22
Author: B.A. Robinson

Web ReligiousTolerance.org