See a different essay for Washington Post/ABC and Fox News poll data 

A bit of perspective: comparing SSM with inter-racial marriage:

	In 1948, about 90% of American adults opposed interracial marriage when the Supreme Court of California legalized it. California became the first state that allowed loving, committed interracial couples to marry -- provided that they were of opposite sexes of course. 1
	In 1967, about 72% of the public remained opposed to interracial marriage. This was the year when the U.S. Supreme Court legalized interracial marriage throughout the U.S. in its famous and ironically named case Loving v. Virginia. To add to the irony, the state of Virginia adopted the state slogan: "Virginia is for lovers" one year later.
	In 1991, those adults opposed to interracial marriage became a minority for the first time. 2

The change averaged slightly less than 1 percentage point per year. It doesn't seem like much, but the change did accumulate with each successive year. As each new generation matures, it tends to be less racist than the previous generation. Meanwhile, older adults tend to retain their beliefs about race from ther earlier years of their life. This establishes a maximum rate at which change is possible.

The same response appears to be occurring with same-sex marriage and homophobia:

In late 2008, Jay McDonough published a fascinating graph on his "swimming freestyle" weblog titled: "Gay marriage will be legal by 2012." The graph is too tiny to read clearly. It shows the decline in opposition to SSM (in red), the rise in support for SSM (in blue) and the stagnation of the the number of "don't knows, from 1986 to 2006. The vertical axis runs from 0 to 100%. The horizontal line half-way up the graph is the 50% support level. The trend appears obvious. ₃

Of course, same-sex marriage did not become legal in 2012. Earlier trends did continue with a noticable surge in support for SSM from 2010 to 2012. A majority of American favored SSM by that year. However, it takes more than a slim majority to implement change. Fear-based anti-SSM ads can significantly alter public support. It really takes about a 10 percentage point margin to pass a referendum on SSM.

Gallup Organization's polls on same-sex marriage 1997 to 2000:

When pollsters substitute the word "marriage" for "civil unions," results shift towards increased opposition. When the Gallup Organization asked the question: "Do you think marriages between homosexuals should or should not be recognized by the law as valid, with the same rights as traditional marriages?" the following data were obtained:  ₄

	20% among mainline Christians
	19% among Roman Catholics
	16% among Secularists
	14% among Whites
	12% among all adults
	10% among Hispanics
	1% among Evangelical Christians
	1% among African-Americans

Pew Forum: Summary of data on same-sex marriage from 1996 to 2012:

Fox News/Opinion Dynamics poll of 2010-AUG:

The latest major poll was conducted by Fox News/Opinion Dynamics over five days starting on 2010-AUG-06. It was the first major poll to show that most American adults support SSM.

• Responding to the question: "Do you think gays and lesbians have a constitutional right to get married and have their marriage recognized by law as valid?" the results were:
  Yes 49%; No 51%; Unsure or no response: 0%.
  
  
• Responding to the question: "Do you think gays and lesbians should have a constitutional right to get married and have their marriage recognized by law as valid?" the results were:
  Yes 52%; No 46%; Unsure or no response: 2%.. ₆

References used:

The following information sources were used to prepare and update the above essay. The hyperlinks are not necessarily still active today.

1. Gail Mathabane, "Gays face same battle interracial couples fought," USA Today, 2004-JAN-25.
2. John Rogers, "Kung Fu Monkey" blog, 2005-MAR-16, at: http://kfmonkey.blogspot.com/
3. "Religion and politics: Contention and consensus," The Pew Research Center for the People and the Press, 2003-JUL-24, at: http://pewforum.org/ This is a PDF file
4. Keating Holland, "Poll: Bush continues to lead Gore in presidential match-up: Education tops list of voter concerns," CNN.com, 2000-JAN-18, at: http://www.cnn.com/
5. "Gay Marriage Is Back On The Radar For Republicans, Evangelicals But Overall Opposition to Gay Marriage is Less Than in 2004," Pew Research Center, 2008-JUN-12, at: http://pewresearch.org/
6. "Same-sex marriage, gay rights," PollingReport.com, as at 2010-AUG-13, at: http://www.pollingreport.com/
7. Domenico Montanaro, "Poll shows support for gay marriage," First Read, 2009-APR-30, at: http://firstread.msnbc.msn.com/
8. "Public Opinion on Gay Marriage: Opponents Consistently Outnumber Supporters," Pew Forum, 2009-JUL-09, at: http://pewforum.org/
9. "Two-Thirds of Democrats Now Support Gay Marriage," The Pew Forum, 2012-JUL-31, at: http://www.pewforum.org/

Copyright © 2001 TO 2012 by Ontario Consultants on Religious Tolerance
Originally written: 2001-JUL-30
Latest update: 2012-AUG-02
Author: B.A. Robinson

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