Efforts to overturn Prop. 8

2009-JUN: Attempting to repeal
Prop. 8 by passing a new proposition.

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Repealing Proposition 8:

Some pro-equality and civil rights movements in the state are planning to initiate a new proposition that would simply repeal Prop. 8. This would presumably re-validate the 2008-MAY decision of the California Supreme Court and restore the availability of SSMs to all loving, committed couples in California, whether they be of opposite-sex or the same-sex.

The next opportunities for a voter decision occur on Election Day during early 2010-NOV and 2012-NOV. Since the court ruled that support from 50.00% of the voters plus one was sufficient to pass Prop. 8, then the same percentage of voters could implement a new proposition that would repeal Prop. 8.

If the new Proposition were passed, religious and social conservatives, including the Mormon and Roman Catholic churches as major players, would be anxious to restore marriage inequality regardless of cost. They can be expected to try to reinstate Prop 8 at the following election day two years later. The flip-flop sequence would probably continue until one side obtained a sizeable majority, making further effort useless.

The first step was to decide whether to launch a new Proposition in 2010 or 2012.

Arguments in favor of trying to repeal Prop. 8 in 2010:

	There is currently considerable enthusiasm among the LGBT community and civil rights proponents to roll back Prop. 8; momentum might partly dissipate if they wait until 2012.
	There will probably be few if any initiatives being voted upon during 2010-NOV. That should increase available donations to a California marriage equality proposition.
	Between 2010 and 2012, the legislature will have been redistricted. This will probably result in 2012 in the most expensive election in over a decade. Money and volunteers might be in short supply.
	By 2012-NOV, marriage equity will be in place in six states: Iowa and all but one of the New England states. It also might possibly be legalized in New York and New Jersey. That momentum could carry over into California.
	All of the leading Democratic candidates for governor at the 2010 election strongly support an overturn of Prop. 8.
	Equality California stated that if the Proposition is delayed until 2012 then: "... between 2010 and 2012, a number of Californians will forever lose the chance to marry the person they love or witness their son or daughter get married, while others will have to wait in a state of limbo to see if they will be able to marry. We should not wait any longer than we have to." 1

Arguments in favor of a vote in 2012:

	It might take three years of effort to change the minds of sufficient voters to repeal Prop. 8.
	National trends show a gradually increasing support for SSM. Repeal would be more certain in 2012 than in 2010. Californians who are now teens and who generally strongly support SSM will be able to vote. Older voters who are generally strongly opposed to SSM will, as Equity California states: "will no longer be in the voting pool." i.e. they will have died. 1
	It will take a lot of money to wage a successful campaign. Funding for and against Prop. 8 involved a total of $80 million. With California being the center of the current recession, this amount might be difficult to raise for a 2010 campaign. More money would be available in 2012 when the economy is predicted to have improved. 2

Reactions to the proposal:

Brian S. Brown, executive director in National Organization for Marriage, -- a group opposed to marriage equality -- said: "The fact is that the people of California have already spoken. And they don't like being told they were wrong the first time."

Kate Kendell, executive director of the National Center for Lesbian Rights, and executive member of the "No on 8" campaign said: "Usually we measure social change on controversial issues on, at a minimum, years, and more often, generations. On this issue, we're measuring it by days." ₃

Equality California held a membership survey to assess support for each of these dates. Thousands responded:

	69% voted for 2010.
	24% preferred 2012;
	7% were uncertain.

The group has decided to try for a 2010 vote, with the expectation that the results will be very close. They are attempting to raise $500,000 during the 100 days between 2009-MAY-24 and AUG-23 to hire 25 grassroots organizers. As of JUN-22, they had raised about 25% of their goal.

References used:

 The following information sources were used to prepare and update the above essay. The hyperlinks are not necessarily still active today.

1. "Returning to the Ballot - 2012 vs. 2012," Equity California, 2009-MAY-26, at: http://www.eqca.org/
2. Marc Solomon, "2010 or 2012? Take our poll," Equity California newsletter, 2009-MAY-19.
3. Jesse McKinley, "Group Renews Fight for Same-Sex Marriage in California," New York Times, 2009-MAY-07, at: http://www.nytimes.com/

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Copyright © 2009 by Ontario Consultants on Religious Tolerance
Original posting: 2009-JUN-22
Latest update: 2009-JUN-30
Author: B.A. Robinson

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