Support for/opposition to same-sex marriage (SSM) in California
1977 to 2013:
|Date||% Approved||% Disapproved||No opinion/
See a crude graph covering the period 2003 to 2012 inclusive. It shows a 31 percentage point increase in support and a 25 percentage point drop in opposition. Surveys before 2003 included a random sampling of all California adults. More recent surveys only involved registered voters.
When given three options for the recognition of same-sex relationships:
Allow civil unions,
A more detailed comparison of support/opposition data from the Field Polls of 2010, 2012 and 2013 are:
|Rise in support 2010 to 2013
(in percentage points)
|65 or older||48/44|
* NOTA = "None Of The Above" or persons with no religious affiliation. This would include many or most secularists, agnostics, atheists, humanists, persons who identify as "spiritual but not religious," etc.
Although the Republicans had one of the largest surges in support between 2010 and 2012, there has been no observable change after 2012. Most still oppose marriage equality.
Protestants remain the the only group other than Republicans in which a majority still oppose SSM. Their support has also remained unchanged between 2012 and 2013.
This is a remarkable increase in support for and lessening of opposition to SSM among the general population since 2008-NOV when Proposition 8 was voted upon. That citizen initiative showed that 48% were in support of SSM and 52% in opposition. This resulted in Prop, 8 being narrowly passed.
The opinions of adults in California have shifted greatly since 2008-NOV when Proposition 8 was narrowly passed. Surveys showed that in 2008, voters were almost evenly split on the citizen initiative. But at the present time, a large majority of Californians favor making marriage available to loving, committed same-sex couples. A poll by SurveyUSA on behalf of KPIX-TV found that:
That is more than a 2:1 ratio supporting SSM!
This was a small poll of 500 adults, conducted between MAR-22 and 24. The margin of error is ±4.2 percentage points.
Thus, if Prop 8 were voted on again, it would be overwhelmingly defeated. 7
Opinions on same-sex marriage in California have been steadily changing from the time of the Prop. 8 vote, as they have been in the rest of the U.S.:
The usual gender difference was found: 63% of women and 52% of men favored SSM.
Voters of all ages support SSM, including 76% of younger voters aged 18 to 29 and 52% of voters 65 years-of-age.
A majority of voters of all ethnicities support SSM: 61% of Whites, 58% of Asians, 51% of Latinos, and 50% of African Americans.
Their telephone survey, conducted between MAY-27 and JUN-02, involved 1,500 registered voters. The margin of error is ±2.9 percentage points. 8
We have only been able to find one graph that shows a complete polling history of support and opposition to SSM in California. This was a low resolution frame grab from a MarriageNewsWatch video of 2013-JUN-10:
The green data points and line indicate gradually accellerating support; those in red show gradually decellerating opposition. The crossover clearly happened about 2007. By 2013-JUN, there is about a 20 percentage point margin in favor of SSM. This would seem to make any future referendum to repeal Proposition 8 almost certain to pass.
The following information source was used to prepare and update the above essay. The hyperlink is not necessarily still active today.
Portions copyright © 2010 to 2013 by Ontario Consultants on Religious
Original posting: 2010-JUL-30
Latest update: 2013-JUL-14
Author: B.A. Robinson
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