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Same-sex marriage (SSM) in the U.S.


2015-JAN: Predictions by various groups
and individuals about the future of
same-sex marriage (SSM) in the U.S.

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LGBT symbol 2015-JAN-08: Same-sex marriage: recent developments, current status, and future predictions:

  • 2013-MAY: Most American adults believe that legal recognition of same-sex marriage across the entire country is "inevitable." A national poll by Pew Research Center for the People and the Press found that 72% of American adults expect this to happen. 1 Among adults who support SSM, 85% believe it is inevitable; among those opposed, the value is 59% -- still a health majority. As a result of dozens of decisions in state and federal courts, many more states have legalized marriage by same-sex couples in the 18 months following the Pew study. These polling results would probably increase significantly if the poll were repeated today.

  • 2013-JUN: Fewer than two months after the Pew Research poll, the U.S. Supreme Court issued rulings in two very important cases on 2013-JUN-26:
    • In Wilson v. United States the high court declared a major part of the federal Defense of Marriage Act (DOMA) to be unconstitutional. It resulted in 1,138 government marriage benefits and protections -- which were previously restricted to opposite-sex married couples -- being also made available to married same-sex couples whose marriages are recognized where they live.

    • Hollingsworth v. Perry had the effect of legalizing same-sex marriage in California for the second time.

  • 2014-DEC: In large, predominately English speaking countries:
    • Same-sex marriage is available throughout Canada, England, New Zealand, Scotland and Wales.

    • It is heavily favored by the public of Australia. However the present Prime Minister refuses to hold a free vote which would almost certainly enable marriage equality.

    • It is being extensively debated in Ireland and Northern Ireland where large majorities of the public favor marriage equality.

    • It is available throughout the District of Columbia and 36 states in the U.S. It is also available in parts of Missouri. Dozens of federal District Courts and state courts have issued rulings legalizing SSMs. However, their decisions were frequently stayed, pending appeals.

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  • 2015-JAN-08: Appeals have been filed in the U.S. Supreme Court to resolve SSM in five states: Kentucky, Louisiana, Michigan, Ohio, and Tennessee. Meanwhile, the 4th, 7th, 9th and 10th U.S. Circuit Courts of Appeals have issued rulings legalizing SSM while the 6th Circuit Court has issued a ruling upholding state bans. With such a "circuit split" acceptance of appeals by the high court is very likely. The nine Justices of the U.S. Supreme Court are scheduled to meet on Friday, 2014-JAN-09, to decide whether to accept one or more of these five cases.

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Topics covered in this section:

  • Part 1: Overview. 2013-MAR: Predictions by Ned Flaherty of Marriage Equality, USA

  • Part 2: 2003-JUN to 2013-JUN: Predictions by Supreme Court Justices Kennedy & Scalia

  • Part 3: 2013-JUL: Predictions by Linda Feldman of the Christian Science Monitor

  • Part 4: 2013: Predictions by Future, this web site, and the New York Times

  • Part 5: 2013-JUN: The Hill's predictions about same-sex marriage (SSM) becoming available across the entire U.S. How this might change opposition to SSM.

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Reference used:

The following information source was used to prepare and update the above essay. The hyperlink is not necessarily still active today.

  1. "Poll: Gay Marriage Viewed As 'Inevitable' By Most Americans," Huffington Post, 2013-JUN-06, at:

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Site navigation:

Home page > "Hot" topics > Homosexuality > Couples > SSM > here

Home page > Homosexuality > SSM > SSM menu > here

Home page >>SSM > SSM menu > here

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Originally written: 2013-JUL-15
Latest update: 2015-JAN-09
Author: B.A. Robinson

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