There are three, long-term conflicts in this area of the world. The first
two, Kirdistan and Kashmir, could be settled very quickly by plebiscites of the
people involved. Unfortunately, the political will does not exist in Turkey,
Iran, Iraq, Pakistan and India to take this path. The third clash,
involving the future of Palestine, is much more intractable. There appear to be
no feasible solutions possible at this time that are acceptable to more than a
minority of Palestinians and Israelis.
Sources of instability in the Middle East and Far East:
Kurdistan: This is a non-existent country which would be the
homeland of the Kurds. They are a fiercely independent people who occupy what
is now parts of Turkey, Iraq and Iran. At this time, none of these three
countries appear willing to grant the Kurds their own homeland. There is no
real provision in international law by which a people can obtain autonomy or
independence. If there were, then the Kurds could create a new country of
Kurdistan and live in peace. There is a significant religious component to
this conflict. Even though the vast majority of Kurds, Turks, Iraquis and
Iranians are Muslims, they come from two traditions within Islam: Shiite
and Sunni. Currently, a low-level conflict continues and will
probably continue indefinitely into the future.
Kashmir: This is an area claimed by both Pakistan and India.
Several wars have been fought over this land since India was divided along
religious lines (Hindu and Muslim) shortly after World War II. Three UN resolutions have called
for a plebiscite to decide whether Kashmir should join India or Pakistan.
Although this solution was originally agreed to by both countries, India has
since reneged on the arrangement. Kashmir is currently divided by a line of
control into a southern region controlled by India and a northern area under
the rule of Pakistan. Any next war may well involve massive loss of life, as
both countries have densely populated urban areas and each now has a few dozen nuclear bombs
with crude delivery
mechanisms. A new complexity has emerged recently: there is a substantial
interest by the people of Kashmir for independence from both India and
Pakistan. Again, no possibility of a
resolution to this problem appears possible.
Palestine: In 1948, the UN created the state of Israel.
1 Surrounding Arab countries were furious, as were the Muslim inhabitants of what is now Israel.
Fighting broke out, and some 750,000 Palestinians either fled or were forced from their homes by the ongoing hostilities, some leaving before
war had even been officially declared.
Governments of the surrounding countries, and the rest of the
world were unwilling to take in the
resultant refugees, forcing them to occupy what have become long-term
camps. Two major wars later, Israel had expanded its borders
to include Judea and Samaria (a.k.a. the West Bank). This incorporates
much of the ancient country of Canaan, which religious Jews believe that
God gave to them. Meanwhile, most fundamentalist Muslims believe that
Allah intends the entire Middle East to be Muslim. Thus began a decades-long
presence in Palestinian
lands by the Israeli army. The Palestinians call it an occupation; the
Israelis call it a disputed territory and occasionally occupied lands. Although a trading of land for peace has worked
successfully in other cases -- notably Egypt -- it has proven to be an elusive
goal between the Palestinians and Israelis.
The Palestine National Authority -- a quasi-governmental
agency in the West Bank and Gaza 2 -- planned Infitada II, a popular
uprising, to start in the fall of 2000. A visit by Israeli prime minister Ariel
Sharon to the Temple Mount in Jerusalem was considered a provocative act
by the Palestinians and used to trigger their uprising. Infitada II is
often portrayed in the media as a two-sided conflict between Palestinians and Israelis; between
Muslims and Jews. That may be overly simplistic. On the Palestinian side,
there are many groups, each with a different agenda. Their goals range from
exterminating every Jew in Israel, to coexisting with Israel. On the
Israeli side, there are at least three politically powerful groups: the
settlers who are illegally living in Palestinian land, small religious
political parties which have traditionally held the balance of power in
the government, and secular Israelis who are in the majority. With perhaps
a half dozen different groups involved in the conflict, resolution has
proven impossible.
Almost a decade later, not much has changed. The
actors have changed. Some Palestinians have launched rockets into Israeli
villages, the Israeli army invaded the Gaza Strip. Both Palestinians and
Israelis have been accused by various groups -- including the UN, of
crimes against humanity.