Climate Change. Part 31.
How to lie about climate change.
UN head repeats warning.
Major report on Arctic climate.
Greenhouse gases soar.
Can climate scientists be trusted?
Short-term vs Long-term variations in global temperature:
Climate researchers rarely refer to short-term temperature changes because such changes tend to be random. Researchers usually refer to long-term trends, as shown by the red line in the following graph. It clearly shows continual warming:
NOAA: Average global temperatures 1970 to 2013
How to use measured temperature data to lie about climate change:
The above chart appears to report average global surface temperatures on a monthly basis.
This graph, and similar graphs produced by other agencies, can be used in different ways to prove that climate change is non-existent or that it is a major threat, or that global cooling is happening. It all depends upon the time span used in the analysis:
- To "prove" that the earth's climate is rapidly cooling: Zero in on a major decrease in temperature, like what happened in 1990 when it dropped about 0.5 degrees in a matter of five months, or about -1.2 degrees a year.
- To "prove" that climate is increasing at a phenominally rapid rate: Zero in on a major increase in temperature, like what happened in 1994-5 when it rose more than 0.7 degrees in a matter of 13 months or about +0.65 degrees a year.
On the other hand, for people with a higher ethical standard, they can promote the truth by drawing a long term trend line like the red line shown above and measure its slope: about +0.65 degrees over 42 years or about +0.15 degrees a decade.
2018-DEC-03: UN Secretary-General Guterres repeated his earlier warning about climate change:
He joined delegates from almost 200 countries at the opening of the UN climate conference COP24 in Katowice, Poland. He said that climate change is"
"... the most important issue we face."
"Even as we witness devastating climate impacts causing havoc across the world, we are still not doing enough, nor moving fast enough, to prevent irreversible and catastrophic climate disruption. ..."
"Climate action is not just the right thing to do -- it makes social and economic sense. Meeting the goals of the Paris Agreement would reduce air pollution, saving more than a million lives each year by 2030, according to the World Health Organization. According to the recent New Climate Economy report, ambitious climate action could yield 65 million jobs and a direct economic gain of $26 trillion compared to business as usual over the next 12 years. We are seeing early signs of this economic transformation, but we are nowhere near where we need to be."
"Climate change is the single most important issue we face. It affects all our plans for sustainable development and a safe, secure and prosperous world. So it is hard to comprehend why we are collectively still moving too slowly ‑ and even in the wrong direction. The IPCC’s Special Report tells us that we still have time to limit temperature rise. But that time is running out." 4
Unfortunately, there are three developments that must happen before "irreversible and catastrophic climate disruption" can be avoided:
Most American adults also believe that we still have time to reverse the effects of climate change and prevent serious consequences of global warming. Unfortunately, most Americans believe the government is incapable of making an substantial efforts in that direction. 6
- A general recognition that radical climate change is actually happening. A Monmouth University survey published on 2018-NOV-29 is encouraging. It indicated that the percentage of U.S. Republicans who recognize that the earth is warming has risen from 49% to 64% over the previous three years. Democrats and Independents, of course, have higher percentages. 5
- A general recognition that the change is severe. Also, over the same time interval, the percentage of U.S. adults who regard climate changes to be a "very serious problem" has increased from 41% to 54%, with opinions of Republicans trailing those of Democrats and Independents. 5
- A general acceptance that climate change caused by human activity. 97% of those scientific articles on climate change -- in which the authors mention the cause of global warming -- assert that climate change is caused by humans. The general population's opinion is MUCH less than this.
2018-DEC-07: Concentrations of greenhouse gases "soar to record levels:"
Stephanie Pappas, writing for Live Science, said that global carbon emissions will reach an estimated 37.1 billion in 2018. This was caused by a 1.6% measured increase during 2017, and an estimated 2.7% increase in 2018, according to researchers at the Global Carbon Project.
Earth system science professor Robert Jackson at Stanford University said:
"For three years, we saw flat greenhouse gas emissions at the same time [that] the world economy grew. That was good news. We hoped that represented peak emissions. It didn't." 12
Image copied from the Woods Hole Research Center home page.
The image clearly describes what needs to be done:
1. Convince people that climate change is serious, and happening now.
2. Convince people that humans are causing global warming
3. Convince people that humans, using science, can reverse the warming.
There are three ways to eliminate the threat:
- We can significantly lower the average per-capita production of greehhouse gasses worldwide.
- We can reduce the total human population on Earth by drastically reducing the birth rate, or
- We can mount the largest human genocide the world has ever seen, hundreds of times worse than even the Nazi Holocaust, and wipe out, say, 50% of the total population.
Of course, we can elect to continue our current path, and take no action. In that case, Nature will implement the genocide option for us.
2018-DEC: NOAA's annual assessment of the state of the Arctic region:
The American Geophysical Union held a meeting in Washington DC during DEC-10 to 14. It was attended by delegates from almost 200 contries! 9
Emily Osborne presented the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's (NOAA) annual assessment of the state of the Arctic. Such reports have been issued annually since the year 2006. She is the lead editor of the report and is the manager of NOAA's Arctic Research Program. Their 2018 Arctic Report Card indicates that continuing warming in the Arctic is pushing the region into:
"... uncharted territory. ... We’re seeing this continued increase of warmth pervading across the entire Arctic system. [The Arctic is experiencing its] most unprecedented transition in human history. ... [During 2018] warming air and ocean temperatures continued to drive broad long-term change across the polar region. ... On the East Coast of the United States ... you have these Arctic air temperatures that are surging over into the lower latitudes and causing these crazy winter storms."
This is having increaingly intense affects on the climate, both in Canada and the continental United States. The temperature of the Arctic has been higher over the last five years than at any time during at least the past 12 decades. (Records only started in the year 1900.)
Air temperatures in the Arctic during 2016 were the warmest ever recorded; temperatures during 2018 will be the second warmest.
Susan M. Natali, an Arctic scientist at Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution (WHOI) in Woods Hole, MA, who was not involved in the research, said the report was another warning going unheeded. She said:
"Every time you see a report, things get worse, and we’re still not taking any action. It adds support that these changes are happening, that they are observable."
One of the effects causing this warming is called "Arctic amplification." Extensive sea ice reflects most of the sun's rays back into space. However, as ice dissapears, the open ocean water is darker than the ice was. Thus, as sea ice melts, the water absorbs more heat. This, in turn, melts more sea ice, producing what is called a "positive feedback loop."
Other observation are that:
- What is called "Old ice," persists from year to year and forms thick layers that resist melting. It has declined in area by 95% over the past 33 years.
- With the warming of the ocean, algae is rapidly expanding in the Arctic and may cause poisoning of marine life and humans in the area.
- The Arctic is warming at twice the rate of the rest of the planet.
- The populations of wild reindeer and caribou have tumbled by 50 percent over the last 20 years.
- Greenland ice sheet is melting faster than it has in at least the past 350 years.
Rafe Pomerance, chairperson of Arctic 21, a group of agencies that attempt to educate politicians and other policymakers on Arctic climate change, said:
"The report card continues to document a rapid unraveling of the Arctic."
It states that:
"... the effects of persistent Arctic warming continue to mount. Continued warming of the Arctic atmosphere and ocean are driving broad change in the environmental system in predicted and, also, unexpected ways. ... The signals of decline are so powerful and the consequences so great that they demand far more urgency from all governments to reduce emissions." 9
New York Times newsletter on climate change:
The Times has a free newsletter devoted to the "latest stories and insichts about climate change -- along with answers to your questions and tips on how to help." Signup at: https://www.nytimes.com/
2018-DEC-10: Live Science magazine publishes review of scientific evidence that greenhouse gases pose a threat to humans:
The article abstract states:
"We assess scientific evidence that has emerged since the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency's 2009 Endangerment Finding for six well-mixed greenhouse gases, and find that this new evidence lends increased support to the conclusion that these gases pose a danger to public health and welfare. Newly available evidence about a wide range of observed and projected impacts strengthens the association between risk of some of these impacts and anthropogenic climate change; indicates that some impacts or combinations of impacts have the potential to be more severe than previously understood; and identifies substantial risk of additional impacts through processes and pathways not considered in the endangerment finding." 10,11
The term "anthropogenic climate change" refers to changes to the climate caused by human activity.
The group based their conclusions on an analysis of 275 scientific studies published since the year 2009.
Did climate researchers in the 1970's actually predict global cooling in their future (our present)?:
Some climate change deniers claim that researchers in the 1970's predicted that the world was cooling and that another ice age might be in our near future. Deniers often point out that since researchers now claim the opposite is true, that they could not be trusted back in the 1970s and thus probably cannot be trusted now.
Reality can be found in a review of climate papers from 1865 to 1979 which was published in the 2008-SEP copy of the American Meterological Society's journal. It found that seven papers back then predicted global cooling while 42 predicted global warming. So, three decades ago, a very strong majority foresaw today's global warming.
The article in the AMS journal stated, in part:
"In July 1979 in Woods Hole, Massachusetts, Jule Charney, one of the pioneers of climate modeling, brought together a panel of experts under the U.S. National Research Council to sort out the state of the science. The panel's work has become iconic as a foundation for the enterprise of climate change study that followed. ... Such reports are a traditional approach within the United States for eliciting expert views on scientific questions of political and public policy importance. ... In this case, the panel concluded that the potential damage from greenhouse gases was real and should not be ignored. The potential for cooling, the threat of aerosols, or the possibility of an ice age shows up nowhere in the report. Warming from doubled C02 of 1.5°-4.5°C was possible, the panel reported." 13
This topic continues in the next essay, with developments during 2019-JAN
The following information sources were used to prepare and update the above
essay. The hyperlinks are not necessarily still active today.
- "A Material to Save the World?," Scientific American Mega, 2018-NOV-05, at: https://www.scientificamerican.com/
- Dino Grandoni, "The Energy 202: Trump administration's release of a climate report on Black Friday didn't bury the news,"
Washington Post, 2018-NOV-23, at: https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/
- Emily Atkin, "Stop Letting Republicans Lie on TV About Climate Science," The New Republic, 2018-NOV-27, at: https://newrepublic.com/
- "No Time Left for Limitless Negotiations, Secretary-General Stresses as Climate Talks Open, Warning: 'We Cannot Afford to Fail in Katowice'," United Nations, 2018-DEC-03, at: https://www.un.org/
- Michael Walsh, "Majority of Republicans now recognize reality of climate change: Poll ," Yahoo!, 2018-NOV-29, at: https://www.yahoo.com/
- Sarah Harvard, "Majority of Republicans now believe climate change exists, new poll finds," Independent (UK), 2018-DEC-01, at: https://www.independent.co.uk/
- "Here’s how much climate change could cost the U.S.," Science News, 2018-NOV-28, at: https://www.sciencenews.org/
- The Woods Hole Research Center's home page is at: http://whrc.org/
- John Schwartz & Henry Fountain, "Warming in Arctic Raises Fears of a ‘Rapid Unraveling’ of the Region," The New York Times, 2018-DEC-11, at: https://www.nytimes.com/
- Philip B. Duffy et al., "Strengthened scientific support for the Endangerment Finding for atmospheric greenhouse gases," Science Magazine, 2018-DEC-13, at: http://science.sciencemag.org/
- Laura Geggel, "Mountain of Evidence Confirms: Climate Change Is Really, Really Bad for Human Health and Well-Being," Live Science, 2018-DEC-14, at: https://www.livescience.com/
- Stephanie Pappas, "The Human Fossil-Fuel Addiction: Greenhouse Emissions Soar to Record Levels," Live Science, 2018-DEC-07, at: https://www.livescience.com/
- Thomas C. Peterson et al., The Myth of the 1970s Global Cooling Scientific Concensus," Journal American Meteorological Society, 2008-SEP, at: http://journals.ametsoc.org/
The following reports in this section that discuss environment and climate change may be of interest to you:
Part 1: 2013: Quotes. Background. Bay of Bengal incident. Decline in Canada's arctic ice cover.
Part 2: 2013/2014: Canada loses its seasons. 316 North American cities to be under water
Part 3: 2013/2014: Christians, Republicans' & Democrats' beliefs differ. Volcanoes cause pauses in global warming. Americans' views on climate change
Part 4: 2014/2015: How Americans viewed climate change. HFC limits. Groups abandoning ALEC. Paris Conference reaches agreement.
Part 5: 2016-FEB to AUG: Climate change concerns: Ocean levels rising. Displacement of animal species.
Greenland glacier melting. "Third Pole" glaciers melting.
Part 6: 2016-SEP: Flooding on the U.S. East coast. U.S. and China ratify the 2015 Paris Climate Agreement. Pres. Obama: trends are "terrifying
Part 7: 2016-SEP: Obama comments on warming (Continued). 31 countries ratify Paris agreement. Trump zigzags on Climate Change.
Part 8: 2016-Summer/Fall: Events showing that climate change is adversely affecting life on Earth
Part 9: 2016-OCT: Did God send Hurricane Matthew as an anti-LGBT message to humanity? Alternate opinions. Hurricane Matthew re-enters Atlantic Ocean.
Part 10: 2016-NOV: U.S. Costal real estate threatened. Rapid temperature rise in the Arctic. Very large poll about climate change.
Part 11: 2016-DEC: President-elect Trump's climate change
New heads of federal
departments. Extinction of 11 species.
Part 12: 2016-DEC: President-elect Trump's 16 promised plans on energy and the environment.
Part 13: 2017-JAN: 2016 Was The Hottest Year On Record, Ever.
Part 14: 2017-JAN:
Recent climate change measurements.
Part 15: 2017-JAN to APR:
Climate Change beliefs are changing; more people
accept it as real, and are now debating its cause.
Part 16: 2017-JAN to APR: Donald
President. EPA Foe Installed as
Head of EPA!
Hundreds Die During Flood in Colombia. Carbon Dioxide
in Atmosphere Reaches New High.
Part 17: 2017-JAN to APR: Studies of the effects
of sea-level rise in California between now and the year 2100.
- Part 18: President Trump severs the U.S. from
the Paris Accord. U.S. and world leaders
- Part 19: 2017: More Reactions to the U.S.
Withdraw from the Paris Agreement.
- Part 20: 2017: Group of 20 summit meeting. Hurricane Harvey attacks Texas.Is climate change increasing the
severity or frequency of hurricanes?
- Part 21: Can government regulations help? Is Harvey a message from God? U.S. record high temperatures. Hurricane Harvey attacks Texas.
Hurricane Irma attacks Caribbean, FL, SC, & GA.
- Part 22: 2017-SEP/OCT: The most expensive recent hurricanes to attack the United States. Does God use Hurricanes to send a message? Conflicts; climate change causes rise in hunger.
- Part 23: All UN states have signed the Paris Agreement. Government report contradicts the President. Comment by
the Union of Concerned Scientists. Temperature records broken. Some fake
news about the EPA
that is too good to miss.
- Part 24: 2018-FEB to MAY:
New temperature records in Toronto. President signs bill increasing research."Onion's" amusing fake news. Sea levels rising; cities under water.
Climate change beliefs as function of age.
Proposed Mount Trumpmore project. How global warming is affecting California.
Animal, Insect, & Bird Ranges Shrink.
Nutrients in rice reduced. California Governor's comments.
- Part 25: 2018-JUN: A very few encouraging signs. Hurricanes slowing as winds increase.
Changes in Antarctic ice and environment.
Norway's growing season increased.
A new world highest temperature.
- Part 26: 2018-JUN: New York City reports to the UN. Impacts of
humans burning up all our fossil energy. WWW.CLIMATECENTRAL.ORG's tools. Death Valley, CA, sets new record.
Copyright © 2018 by Ontario Consultants on Religious Tolerance
Originally posted: 2018-NOV-23
Latest update: 2018-DEC-19
Author: B.A. Robinson