GROWTH RATE OF CHRISTIANITY & ISLAM
Which will be the dominant religion in the future?
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Some estimates of numbers and growth rate of Christians:
| Source |
Year |
Number or Percentage of world's
population |
Growth Rate/year |
| Readers Digest 1 |
1985 |
1.0 billion |
- |
| Al-Islam 2 |
1994 to 1995 |
- |
1.46% |
| U.S. Center for World Mission 3 |
From 1970 to 1996 |
From 33.7% to 33.9% |
2.3% |
| John Gary 4 |
2025 |
3 billion |
- |
| UK Christian Handbook 9 |
From 2000 to 2010 |
From 27.7% to 27.1% |
- |
| Barrett & Johnson 5 |
From 2000 to 2025 |
From 2.015 to 2.711 billion |
- |
| Todd Johnson 6 |
From 2000 to 2025 |
From 2.090 to 3.023 billion; 33.4% to
35.5% |
- |
| Todd Johnson 6 |
2200! |
4.40 billion |
- |
| World Christian Encyclopedia |
2000 |
2.0 billion; 37.9% |
- |
| Samuel Huntington |
2025 |
25% |
- |
Notes:
 |
Al-Islam quotes an unspecified UN source. |
|
Futurist John Gary quoted unnamed religious researchers. |
|
The growth rate of Christianity, according to the U.S. Center for World Mission,
is very close to the growth rate of the world's population. The
percentage of Christians in the world has remained almost constant for
decades. |
Some estimates of numbers and growth rate of Muslims:
| Source |
Year |
Number or Percentage of World's
Population |
Growth Rate |
| Readers Digest 1 |
1985 |
700 million |
- |
| Al-Islam 2 |
1994 to 1995 |
- |
6.4% |
| U.S. Center for World Mission 3 |
From 1970 to 1996 |
- |
2.9% |
| John Gary 4 |
2025 |
2 billion |
- |
| Barrett & Johnson 5 |
2000 to 2025 |
1.22 to 1.89 billion |
- |
| Todd Johnson 6 |
From 2000 to 2025 |
From 1.16 to 1.72 billion; From 18.5%
to 20.2% |
|
| Todd Johnson 6 |
2200! |
2.62 billion; 22.6% |
|
| Samuel Huntington |
2025 |
30% |
|
| |
|
|
|
Notes:
|
Al-Islam quotes an unspecified UN source. |
|
The growth rate of Islam, according to the U.S. Center for World Mission,
at 2.9% is higher than the 2.6% growth rate of the world's
population. Thus, the percentage of Muslims in the world is growing on
the order of 0.6% per year. |
|
Futurist John Gary stated in 1997 that Islam is the
fastest-growing of the major world religions. This is driven by the
higher birth rates in the third world. |
|
Barrett & Johnson's estimated in an article in the
International Bulletin of Missionary Research that the number of
Muslims would grow from 1.22 billion in the year 2000 to 1.89 billion by
2025. |
|
Author Samuel Huntington predicts that "Muslims in the world
will continue to increase dramatically, amounting to 20 percent of the
world's population about the turn of the [21st] century, surpassing the
number of Christians some years later..."
|
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Summary:
There is no agreement about future trends in Christianity and Islam:
|
Author Samuel Huntington predicts that
Islam will overtake Christianity early in the 21st century. By the year 2025,
Islam will have 5% more adherents than will Christianity.
|
|
The U.S. Center for World Mission
estimated in 1997 that Christianity's total
number of adherents is growing at about 2.3% annually. This is approximately equal to the growth
rate of the world's population. Islam is growing faster: about 2.9% and is thus increasing its
market share. At this rate, Islam would surpass Christianity as the world's
main religion by 2023 CE. |
|
Most Christian sources predict that Christianity will retain its numerical
lead over Islam beyond the year 2025. For example, futurist John Gary
stated in 1997: "In no probable statistical scenario
reaching out to the year 2200, does Islam surpass Christianity in
absolute number of adherents." |
Sources of additional information:
|
Essays on this web site: | |
Periodicals:
 |
L.E. Browne, "The Religion of the World in AD 3000."
International Review of Missions 38/104 (1949), Pages 463 to 468. |
| |
Books:
|
Alex Heard, "Apocalypse Pretty Soon: Travels in End-Time America,"
Main Street Books, (2000).
Review/order
this book safely, from Amazon.com online bookstore. |
|
Hans Küng, "Theology
for the Third Millennium: An Ecumenical View." Doubleday, 1988.
Out of print, but a used copy is generally available. |
|
Sandra Schneiders, "With Oil in Their Lamps : Faith, Feminism, and the
Future : 2000 Madeleva Lecture in Spirituality," Paulist Press, (2000).
Review/order
this book |
|
Rodney Stark, et al., "The Future of Religion: Secularization,
Revival and Cult Formation. University of California Press, 1985.
Review/order
this book |
|
H.H. Ward, "Religion 2101 A.D.," Doubleday, 1975.
Out of print, but a used copy is generally available |
|
W. van Dusen Wishard, "Between Two Ages : The 21st Century and the
Crisis of Meaning," Xlibris Corp., (2000).
Review/order
this book
|
| |
Web Sites:
|
References used:
-
Quoted in "The World's Major Religions Changes," IslamicWeb, at:
http://www.islamicweb.com/
-
"World Muslim Population," Al_Islam, at:
http://www.alislam.or.id/informasi/
-
Greg H. Parsons, Executive Director, "U.S. Center for World Mission,"
Pasadena, CA; quoted in Zondervan News Service, 1997-FEB-21.
-
Jay Gary, "Ten Global Trends in Religion," World Network of
Religious Futurists, at:
http://www.wnrf.org/articles/gtrends.htm
-
David B. Barrett & Todd M. Johnson, "Annual Statistical Table on Global
Mission" International Bulletin of Missionary Research, 1999-JAN, Pages 24
& 25.
-
Todd Johnson, "Religious Projections for the Next 200 Years," World
Network of Religious Futurists, at:
http://www.wnrf.org/articles/next200.htm
-
David Barrett et al, "World Christian Encyclopedia: A comparative
survey of churches and religions - AD 30 to 2200," Oxford University
Press, (2001). The ultimate reference book on world religions. A two
volume monumental set, it contains 1699 pages with information about religion in the 238
countries of the world.
Read
reviews or order this book safely from Amazon.com online book store
-
Samuel Huntington, "The Clash of Civilizations and the remaking of world
order," Touchstone Books, (1998), Pages 65 to 66.This is a controversial
book which argues that world divisions in the future will be based on culture, ethnicity
and religion. Read reviews
or order this book.
-
Quoted in Religion Today's Current News Summary for 1999-OCT-19.
Copyright © 2001 by Ontario Consultants on Religious
Tolerance
Originally written: 2001-NOV-6
Latest update: 2001-NOV-6
Author: B.A. Robinson 
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